Unlike Egypt and some other Middle East nations being shaken by popular protest, Libya has no obvious successor to the current regime. In particular, it lacks the cohesive, well-disciplined military that has taken over in Egypt.
Analysts are already noting evidence that Libya's military is splintering under the pressure from the streets. At least two Libyan air force jets landed in Malta Monday as their pilots defected, and there were reports of some army units joining the protesters. The army chief of staff reportedly has been placed under house arrest.
"If the regime cannot hold the loyalty of the army, then power in the country falls to the tribes,'' said Reva Bhalla, director of analysis and a Middle East expert at Stratfor, a private international intelligence firm. And with some of Libya's powerful tribes already turning on the Gaddafi regime, "The threat of civil war is very real,'' she said.
U.S. oil prices jumped six percent Monday amid fears that Libya's crude oil exports, and its larger untapped petroleum reserves, might be wrenched off the market if the turbulence continues to rise.
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