Can complexity theory explain Egypt's crisis?

"Scientists who study complex systems have been warning that ever-tighter coupling among the world's finance, energy and food systems would result in waves of political instability. Some say that is now happening in the Middle East.

Better models of the complex relationships in these systems could allow us to predict the next domino to fall.

For now, they show that there are two sides to complex interdependencies: they can generate cascading change, also known as revolution, but they can also collapse. At the minute, because so many aspects of Egypt's daily life are interlinked, the country is walking a fine line between the two.

Food is a political issue in Egypt: Egyptians are the world's biggest wheat importers and consumers, and most are poor.

As a result, the government maintains order with heavy subsidies for bread. It also runs the ports where imported wheat arrives, the trucks that haul it, the flour mills and bakeries. "Such hierarchical systems are both stable and unstable," says Yaneer Bar-Yam, head of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts."
via New Scientist /continue reading